The paradox of New York’s 1980s mayor is that he governed as a conservative Democrat though progressives got him elected

Besides the eulogies that will delivered at Ed Koch’s funeral Monday, what’s there to say? He was a complicated figure whom some people liked and others didn’t. Above all else, he was a New Yorker. I ran into him more than once, though I can’t say I “knew” Koch – but I would like to look back at the electoral history of New York’s mayor from 1977 to 1989.

That, too, is more complicated than you might think.

Ed Koch tends to be remembered as a solid mayor. In a 2011 poll of New Yorkers, 66% rated Koch as an excellent or good mayor – the highest of the five mayors Quinnipiac tested for. More interestingly, he won support from across the ethnic and ideological spectrum: 64% of blacks, 68% of Hispanics, and 71% of whites gave him a good or excellent rating; 67% of Democrats, 67% of independents, and 65% of Republicans did so, as well.

It’s not too surprising that Koch is well liked by whites and Republicans. He was a conservative Democrat, a “liberal with sanity“. He is still the only candidate to win more than 69% of the vote in a mayoral election. Koch did it twice, in 1981 and 1985, with 75% and 78%, respectively. His hold on New York voters was so strong that, in 1981, he managed to win party endorsements from both Democrats and Republicans

Koch did face significant electoral problems, though – with primaries, as illustrated in John Mollenkopf’s A Phoenix in the Ashes. He won “only” 60% and 64% of the vote in the 1981 and 1985 primaries, respectively. In both races, his poorest performances were in white liberal, black, and Latino assembly districts – not terribly surprising for a man who fought openly against “black poverty pimps” and liberals.

He didn’t register a majority of the vote in Latino assembly districts in the 1981 primary, or in the African-American assembly districts in either race. He won those primaries largely due to support from Jewish voters (he consistently won 70% or more of Jewish assembly districts) and white Catholics. Koch was Jewish, of course; and also conservative, like many white Catholics.

Eventually, however, he ran out of luck. His candid yet combative personality began to wear on voters, as did a series of scandals tied to the city government. He was further plagued by a high crime rate, his often abrasive conservatism, and a perceived antagonism towards minorities.

Thus, opportunity knocked for a challenger in the 1989 Democratic primary: Manhattan Borough President David Dinkins. Dinkins, an African American, started with a huge lead in the polls, leaving Koch to play catch-up the rest of the way. Koch did close the gap, but Dinkins still won a very respectable 51% to 42% of the vote. He won by playing to all Koch’s weaknesses: he cut into Koch’s majorities among white Catholics and Jews; he drove up the turnout in minority districts; and he took the liberal assembly districts, ran up huge majorities in Latino districts, and earned 90% in black districts.

The irony to Koch’s electoral story is that he first became mayor thanks to minorities and liberals, not just for his conservative, anti-crime stance in the year of the great 1977 blackout. Koch didn’t win one borough in the initial six-way 1977 Democratic primary, but he finished in first place overall with 20% of the vote. He ran strongest in white liberal portions of Manhattan and in middle- and upper-class Jewish neighborhoods of the outer boroughs. Mario Cuomo finished second overall with 19%, and no other major candidate came in with less than 11%.

In the runoff (required because no candidate won at least 40%), Koch made the rounds and won support from every corner. Many of the white liberals in the city were Jewish, and despite Cuomo’s endorsement from Bella Abzug, Koch took them. He also won more conservative Jewish voters who had gone to the incumbent, Abe Beame, in the initial primary. In fact, Koch won nearly 65% from each of the assembly districts that had previously voted for Abzug, Beame, and himself.

What Koch did next has faded into distant history: he earned the minority vote in the primary. Puerto Rican candidate Herman Badillo endorsed Koch with the hope of an administration job (which he got), and Koch took 56% of the vote in the Badillo districts. Koch then went to the African-American leaders like Charlie Rangel and Carl McCall; he made promises, got endorsements, and won 54% in the districts that had gone for African-American candidate Percy Sutton in the first round.

Thanks to this broad coalition of New Yorkers, Koch won the primary runoff with 55% of the vote. The only demographic that didn’t go for Koch was the white Catholic vote, the same group that would later anchor his coalition. In this first primary, they chose the more liberal, but white Catholic candidate: Mario Cuomo.

Koch faced Cuomo again in the 1977 general election, the latter running on a third-party ticket (having lost in the primaries). Cuomo thought that with more conservative and white Catholic voters in the general election, he’d have a fighting chance. And indeed, Koch saw dips in his more conservative districts, thanks to an influx of non-Democratic voters. Moreover, he managed only a meager 31% in white Catholic districts. Had Beame’s and Cuomo’s support from the primary voted in the general, Koch might have lost.

Fortunately for Koch, liberals and minorities saved him. In the general election, Koch held onto 65% in the liberal Abzug districts, and drove his support up to 62% in the Badillo and Sutton districts. The final tally was a close but comfortable 50% to 41% win. Koch had liberals and minorities to thank for the mayor’s office.

Years later, after he’d alienated New York’s liberals and minorities and thus cost himself the job, nostalgia won those demographic groups back. Koch was seen as a more successful mayor than Dinkins, who lost to Giuliani in 1993. (Dinkins is the only mayor tested by Quinnipiac to be seen as “not good” rather than “good”.) Koch was seen as far more sympathetic to liberal and minority concerns than the Republican Giuliani, who some saw as racist.

Compared to his successors, public opinion has decided that Koch wasn’t so bad, after all. Take that with his conservative record, and most people across the spectrum remember him fondly. To Ed Koch’s final question “Do you miss me?”, most New Yorkers would probably say yes.