We’re not live-blogging the presidential race, but here is an interesting tidbit:
There is not much to update in the model, but we can update our expectations given current returns. Put another way: we can ditch simulations with results we know to be incorrect.
By updating our beliefs, Mr. Romney’s chances of winning drop from 32 percent to only 12 percent. As you can see in the figure, Mr. Romney’s distribution of electoral votes has become much more certain (as we would expect), but he’s lost most area under the curve to the right of 270.
The door on Mr. Romney’s probability of winning is closing, and quickly.